Up until around the early 2000s, space-based ISR was the kind of capability that was wholly in the hands of governments: launching satellites to places we humans couldn’t get to needed very deep pockets and resources – both equipment and personnel – that weren’t available to other organisations.
However, in the last two decades, there have been a few major triggers that have allowed space-based ISR to become more of a commercial entity. Firstly, launching a satellite is now much cheaper than it used to be. Secondly, data storage is also significantly cheaper (plus, the amount of data that can be stored has grown exponentially). Thirdly, western governments have largely de-regulated the application of commercial space ISR, removing a significant barrier to entry.
In terms of this commercial data, there are three layers:
- Classified. Governments are used to working with this data and are comfortable handling and managing it.
- Privileged. This data has to be paid for and is the area governments struggle with the most.
- Unclassified. You might also know this as ‘open source’ data – information you could find by doing an internet search.
We’ve now seen that 30 or so commercial companies – like SpaceX – have launched satellites. Whether their satellites are designed for electro-optical, infrared, synthetic aperture radar, or radio frequency purposes, many companies have recognised the commercial value of space-based ISR. They are driving an up-and-coming market and have been actively selling data to other organisations, including militaries.
And in the last five years, this market has evolved even further. Those adaptive, innovative companies have recognised that the power isn’t necessarily in selling the imagery; their commercial model is becoming about selling analytics and using technology to assess and interpret the pictures.
But there is one critical organisation that, as yet, has not been able to make the most of these incredible new opportunities: the UK government.
What’s currently blocking the UK government’s adoption of commercial space-based ISR?
The challenges and the blockers to the UK government’s adoption of space-based ISR are quite broad. Many people would suggest that the issue is technical, but this actually poses very little challenge. The accessibility to the technology is already there, and integrating new technology is actually pretty straightforward.
Most of the blockers lie at a cultural level: issues with governance, processes, and the way the UK government does business; however, there are also things that commercial organisations can do better.
Security. This is one of the biggest blockers to the adoption of commercial space capabilities. Governments are used to working in sensitive areas, with exquisite capabilities and highly trained, security-cleared analysts. The adoption of commercial space turns that completely on its head.
It requires doing the work in a different place, so instead of pulling all that data into secure environments and analysing it there, because of the volume of the data, the government would have to essentially go to where the data is. And, of course, that platform will be owned by a commercial vendor.
So, there are two main concerns: how government-sensitive analytics can be an output from commercial data, and who else could potentially see what data the government has been accessing. Companies need to get better at explaining the security that protects their data and reassuring potential end-users.
Developing partnerships. Unlike US agencies, the UK government doesn’t have – or doesn’t appear to have – an approved mechanism for establishing a trusting, two-way relationship with commercial entities that allows for potentially sensitive intelligence tasking or requirements to be shared (even with companies that have facilities and staff with security clearances).
Trust in intelligence tasking. It’s no longer viable for intelligence to be the output of a one-to-one relationship between an image and an analyst; that’s the traditional way of working, but it’s no longer fast or efficient enough.
Instead, the future of intelligence is automated: for example, asking an algorithm to monitor and report back if a certain number of aircraft enter a designated target area. So, the government must trust that the commercial information entities they’re dealing with can be tasked with this work.
Intelligence assurance. If intelligence is to be automated, prospective end-users – like the UK government – need better assurance that the output is accurate. Let’s say that the analytics says five aircraft turned up in the aforementioned designated area, but actually, it was four and one was misidentified; that erodes trust. However, a human could make the exact same mistake; in fact, humans are more error-prone.
So there are two elements here: commercial organisations need to be able to assure intelligence users of the output of their systems, and users need to recognise that humans are not a ‘safer’ option.
Commercial risk appetite. Although there are areas within the UK government where improved approaches are being tested and used, the government is typically averse to taking risks, deterred from contracting for unknown or undefined outcomes, and doesn’t deal well with fast-paced change.
What could happen if the UK government does not adopt space-based ISR?
So many developments have already taken place in the commercial ISR world, but the pace and rate of change is still accelerating.
With the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models, analysts now have the ability to enter a phrase or a question into a tool and be given the answer. For example, an analyst could sit at their desk and type in, “Show me what the floods looked like in Rio de Janeiro yesterday and today”, and the AI will find that data and report back. This is a very different scenario from what existed even a handful of years ago, where they would have had to access the images and manually go through a process of analysing and comparing what they see.
And this ever-increasing pace is creating a challenge for the UK government: because they’re wrapped up in lengthy programmes and projects with long lead times, are engaged in classified international relationships and partnerships, and deal with sensitive sources and data, they’re held back from moving quickly and are completely missing out on a whole myriad of new sources, analytics, and AI tools that can do things that humans simply cannot.
Many of our adversaries aren’t held back the same way: some nations are already investing very heavily in space-based ISR at a government level.
In the next two years, China will have more satellites in space – including commercial and government-owned assets – than any other nation in the world. And while China is leading the way, several other nations are following hot on their heels. Before long, any meaningful advantage that we might have today over our potential adversaries will be lost.
The UK government is already behind and, in our opinion, should have been more reactive to the development of commercial ISR and started adopting these new technologies five years ago.
And the longer we wait, the bigger that gap between us and our potential adversaries gets.
But if we start now, we have a chance to catch up.
How can the government begin this process?
As we alluded to earlier, the majority of the blockers which have so far prevented the UK government from adopting commercial ISR are cultural.
Cultural change is always difficult, but there are a few key suggestions that we would make:
Being able to take a higher tolerance of commercial risk. Investing in and using some of these technologies can be risky for several reasons, not least the change at which they evolve. But as we’ve discussed, taking a risk now is required to ensure we don’t get left even further behind.
Breaking the reliance on traditional intelligence means. The UK government has had a very privileged government-to-government relationship with our international allies for years. That has created certain cultures and behaviours and a reliance on existing sources and technologies (like traditional satellites).
But now, the commercial world is doing things that would historically have only been possible by government organisations.
The UK government needs to realise that it doesn’t always have to rely on what it’s known in the past and can get intelligence answers from non-traditional partners.
Changing policy. To change policy, you have to understand what you’re trying to do. The current approach is for the government – and departments such as the Ministry of Defence – to assess how to govern something before they start doing it.
But it has to be the other way round because the rate of change is such that by the time they’ve spent several months learning how to govern something, everything in the commercial world will have accelerated again.
MAIAR’s expert advice to the UK government: act now!
We suggest that the UK government – starting now – needs to take a layered approach to learning how to adopt and utilise the amazing emerging capabilities.
Currently, they almost solely focus on the ‘technology’ layer (which, as we’ve discussed, is actually one of the easiest parts of the puzzle to solve).
But they rarely, if ever, look at the next layer up – the ‘operational’ layer – which would help them identify and assess operational controls and capabilities and how new technologies could be operationalised.
And then the final layer is the ‘governance’ aspect, which looks at policies required to adopt and implement technologies, and whether there are any legal considerations.
Ultimately, the UK government cannot get where it needs to be from a standing start. Our advice – and the process we are championing – is that the government can start this process right now by adopting technologies to be used on small, flexible projects that they can develop and learn from at each of the three aforementioned layers.